MarketsRisk Profile
Price History
40
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
10
vol=$14,541,095, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
90
σ=38.79%/day, AC=-0.03, 22 points
25
The contract has low resolution risk due to a clearly defined, objective numerical threshold (7-day moving average ≥60) tied to a specific, verifiable data source (IMF Portwatch). The main minor risks are potential data publication delays and the possibility of historical data revisions, but these are explicitly addressed in the criteria with a 14-day grace period and a cutoff date for considering revisions.
55
Platform default: polymarket
20
2d to resolution, volume rising
high_volatilityno_news_volatility
Order Book
Top Holders
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include co...