MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
37
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
35
Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions
48
Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
20
Resolves in ~231d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
Long-dated
Order Book
Top Holders
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls inclu...
Poly
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Poly: 77¢