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Deep dives, strategy breakdowns, and data-driven insights for prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi.
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Apr 16, 2026
SpaceX IPO at 69c Is Nearly Fair — Here's How to Calculate If Any Trade Has Edge
Using the SpaceX IPO contract to teach the most important number in prediction market trading: expected value.
polymarket
Apr 10, 2026
Kalshi's Fed Rate Contract Is 6pp Off Calibrated Probability
Le (2026) recalibration reveals systematic mispricing in interest rate markets.
kalshi
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