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Deep dives, strategy breakdowns, and data-driven insights for prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi.
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Apr 27, 2026
Ken Paxton at 60c Is Fairly Priced — But Your TX Primary Portfolio Might Not Be
Why holding Paxton, Cornyn, and Bush contracts simultaneously isn't diversification — it's a leveraged bet on one race.
polymarket
Apr 20, 2026
Why Political Markets Are Systematically Mispriced — and What Massie's 70c Primary Contract Reveals
Le (2026) identifies politics as the most underconfident domain. Here's the mechanism behind the bias.
polymarket
Apr 16, 2026
SpaceX IPO at 69c Is Nearly Fair — Here's How to Calculate If Any Trade Has Edge
Using the SpaceX IPO contract to teach the most important number in prediction market trading: expected value.
polymarket
Apr 10, 2026
Kalshi's Fed Rate Contract Is 6pp Off Calibrated Probability
Le (2026) recalibration reveals systematic mispricing in interest rate markets.
kalshi
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