Privacy
Policy

1. What Information Do We Collect?

Personal information you provide to us

We collect personal information that you voluntarily provide when you register on the service or contact us. This includes:

• Name (optional)
• Email address (required for account creation and briefing delivery)
• Password (hashed; we do not store plaintext passwords)
• Briefing preferences — the regions, countries, and topics you configure, your delivery frequency, and your time zone

Forecasting and research data you create

When you use the Research Workspace, Forecast Journal, Watchlist, and related research tools, we store the following user-generated content in your account:

• Forecasts — your probability estimates, target questions, and resolution criteria
• Watchlist selections — the prediction market contracts you add to your watchlist for monitoring and research
• Causal factors — factors you identify or accept from AI suggestions during the research process
• Reference classes — historical base rates and analogies used in your outside-view analysis
• Inside-view adjustments — per-factor slider values and rationale notes
• Decision logs — your recorded assumptions and reasoning at each forecast step
• Assumption alerts — the assumptions you tag for monitoring and their alert configurations

This data is personal to your account and is used solely to provide and improve the research tools for you. All forecasts, watchlist items, and other user-generated data stored in Supabase are deletable on request.

Market data from third-party APIs

Field Estimate retrieves publicly available prediction market data from third-party APIs including Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt. We also aggregate community forecast data from Metaculus and Manifold. This data is used to display contract prices, market snapshots, and community probability estimates within our research tools. No personal data is sent to these providers when we retrieve market data.

Payment data

We collect data necessary to process your subscription payment. All payment data — including card numbers, billing address, and payment instrument details — is handled and stored exclusively by Stripe. We do not store payment card data on our systems. We retain only subscription status metadata (plan type, billing period, subscription ID) for service delivery and support purposes.

Stripe's privacy policy: stripe.com/privacy

Automatically collected information

When you use the service, certain technical information is collected automatically by our infrastructure provider (Supabase), including:

• IP address and general location (country/region)
• Browser type and operating system
• Pages visited and session duration
• Authentication tokens (session management only)

We do not use this information for advertising or tracking purposes. We do not sell or share your personally identifiable information with third parties for their own commercial purposes.

2. How Do We Process Your Information?

We process your personal information for the following purposes:

• Account creation and authentication — to create and manage your account and verify your identity
• Briefing delivery— to generate and send daily or weekly briefings tailored to your configured preferences, including matched prediction market contracts in the "Markets to Watch" section
• Research tools — to power the Research Workspace (AI-suggested causal factors, reference classes, inside-view adjustments, market comparison), Forecast Journal (Brier score calculation, resolution tracking), Watchlist (contract monitoring), and Assumption Alerts (matching briefing content against your assumptions)
• Prediction market data aggregation — to retrieve and display live contract prices from Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt, and community forecasts from Metaculus and Manifold, for comparison with your research
• Trend analysis — to generate weekly trend syntheses using semantic embeddings of briefing content
• Economics data — to display FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) indicators relevant to your research
• Payment processing — to manage your subscription, process payments via Stripe, and handle billing communications
• Service communications — to send account-related notifications, assumption alerts, billing updates, and changes to terms or policies
• Support — to respond to inquiries and resolve issues
• Security and fraud prevention — to detect and prevent unauthorized access
• Legal compliance — to fulfill legal obligations where required

We do not process your personal information for advertising, profiling, or sale to third parties. Your personally identifiable information is never sold or shared for commercial purposes.

3. What Legal Bases Do We Rely On?

If you are in the EU, UK, or Switzerland: We rely on the following legal bases under GDPR:

• Performance of a contract — processing necessary to deliver the subscription service you have signed up for (account management, briefing delivery, research tools, billing)
• Legitimate interests — improving service reliability, security monitoring, and fraud prevention
• Legal obligations — complying with applicable law where required
• Consent — where we rely on consent (e.g., optional communications), you may withdraw it at any time by contacting us at info@fieldestimate.org

If you are in Canada: We process your information based on express or implied consent, or as otherwise permitted by applicable Canadian privacy law.

If you are in the United States: We process your information as described in this notice in accordance with applicable US state privacy laws.

4. When and With Whom Do We Share Your Information?

We do not sell your personal information. We do not share your personally identifiable information with third parties for their own commercial or marketing purposes. We share personal information only with the following service providers, under written agreements, and only to the extent necessary to deliver the research tools and services:

We may also share your information if required by law, court order, or legal process, or in connection with a merger, acquisition, or sale of assets, in which case you will be notified via prominent notice on the website or direct email.

5. Cookies and Tracking Technologies

Field Estimate uses cookies solely for authentication and session management. We use Supabase auth session cookies to maintain your login state across page visits. These cookies are strictly necessary for the operation of the service and cannot be opted out of while using the platform.

We do not use advertising cookies, social media tracking pixels, or third-party marketing cookies. We do not participate in cross-site tracking or retargeting networks.

6. AI-Generated Content, Forecasting Tools, and Third-Party Data

AI-generated content disclaimer

Field Estimate uses Anthropic's Claude AI model to synthesize news briefings from aggregated search results, suggest causal factors for forecasts, generate historical reference classes, match prediction market contracts to daily news, and produce weekly trend analyses. All AI-generated content may contain errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Analysis generated by AI models should not be relied upon as financial advice, investment advice, trading recommendations, or any other form of professional advice. AI-generated content is provided for informational and research purposes only. Users should independently verify any information before making decisions based on it.

Your briefing preferences (regions, countries, topics) and forecast context (question text, causal factors) are passed to the AI model as part of the generation process. This data is processed by Anthropic subject to their privacy policy and data processing agreements. We do not knowingly pass any other personally identifying information to the AI model.

Semantic embeddings

Briefing content and prediction market contract descriptions are processed through OpenAI's embedding model to enable semantic search, trend clustering, and contract-driven news enrichment. These embeddings are stored in our database (via pgvector) and are not shared with third parties beyond the embedding generation request.

Third-party news sources

Briefings are generated from news articles retrieved via the Tavily search API in multiple languages (English, Arabic, Farsi, Hebrew). Field Estimate does not own, control, or guarantee the accuracy of the underlying source content. Coverage reflects what is available in search results at the time of generation and is not a comprehensive monitor of world events.

We do not claim copyright ownership of the source articles referenced in briefings. Source links are included in briefings where available.

7. Prediction Market Data

Field Estimate retrieves publicly available prediction market data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt, and community forecast data from Metaculus and Manifold, to display contract prices, market snapshots, community probability estimates, and related data alongside your research.

• No personal data is sent to Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Metaculus, or Manifold. We query their public APIs for contract prices and metadata only.
• Market snapshots (cached contract prices at a point in time) are stored in our database to power the Forecast Journal, Watchlist, and historical comparison features.
• Watchlist data — the contracts you add to your watchlist are stored in your Supabase account and are deletable on request.
• Field Estimate is a research tool, not a trading platform. We do not facilitate, broker, or execute trades on any prediction market. Market data is displayed for informational and research purposes only.

8. Analytics

We collect basic usage analytics to understand how our research tools are used and to improve the service. This includes aggregated, non-identifying data such as page views, feature usage patterns, and session duration. We do not use third-party advertising analytics platforms. Analytics data is not linked to your personal identity and is not shared with third parties.

9. How Long Do We Keep Your Information?

We retain your personal information for as long as your account is active, and for up to 12 months following account termination or subscription cancellation. This period allows for reactivation of your account and compliance with applicable legal and financial record-keeping requirements.

Briefing content, forecasts, watchlist items, decision logs, and other user-generated research data are retained for the duration of your account and for up to 12 months after account closure. You may request deletion of your forecasts, watchlist items, and other user-generated data at any time by contacting us.

Payment records are retained as required by applicable law and Stripe's own retention policies.

When the retention period expires, we will delete or anonymize your personal information. If deletion is not immediately possible (e.g., data in backup archives), we will isolate and protect it until deletion is feasible.

10. How Do We Keep Your Information Safe?

We implement reasonable technical and organizational security measures to protect your personal information, including:

• Encrypted data transmission (HTTPS/TLS)
• Authentication via Supabase Auth with hashed passwords
• Row-level security (RLS) on all database tables containing user data
• API key management via environment variables (not stored in code)
• Forecast, watchlist, and research data isolated per-user through database policies

However, no transmission over the internet or electronic storage system is 100% secure. You should only access the service from a secure environment and are responsible for maintaining the security of your account credentials.

11. Do We Collect Information from Minors?

We do not knowingly collect data from or market to anyone under 18 years of age. By using the service, you represent that you are at least 18 years old. If we learn that personal information from a user under 18 has been collected, we will deactivate the account and delete the data promptly. To report such concerns, contact info@fieldestimate.org.

12. What Are Your Privacy Rights?

EU, UK, Switzerland, and Canada residents may have the right to:

• Access and obtain a copy of your personal information
• Request correction of inaccurate data
• Request deletion of your data
• Restrict or object to certain processing
• Data portability
• Withdraw consent at any time (where processing is consent-based)

To exercise these rights, email info@fieldestimate.org. We will respond within the timeframe required by applicable law. You may also request deletion of your forecasts, watchlist items, and other user-generated data stored in Supabase at any time.

If you are in the EU or UK and believe we are unlawfully processing your data, you may complain to your national data protection authority or the UK Information Commissioner's Office.

Account information

You may review or update your preferences at any time by logging into your account. To request account deletion, email info@fieldestimate.org.

13. Controls for Do-Not-Track Features

We do not respond to Do-Not-Track (DNT) browser signals at this time, as no uniform technical standard for recognizing DNT has been finalized. We will update this notice if a standard is adopted that we are required to follow.

14. Do United States Residents Have Specific Privacy Rights?

Residents of California, Colorado, Connecticut, Virginia, and other US states with applicable privacy laws may have specific rights including the right to know, access, correct, delete, and opt out of certain uses of their personal information.

Categories of personal information collected

We have not sold or shared any personal information to third parties for commercial purposes and do not intend to do so.

How to exercise your rights

Email info@fieldestimate.org with your request. We will verify your identity before processing. You may also submit a data subject access request.

If we decline your request, you may appeal by emailing us. If your appeal is denied, you may submit a complaint to your state Attorney General.

California "Shine the Light": California residents may request information about disclosure of personal information to third parties for direct marketing purposes once per year, free of charge. We do not disclose personal information for direct marketing purposes.

15. Do We Make Updates to This Notice?

Yes. We may update this notice as necessary to reflect changes in our practices or applicable law. The "Last updated" date at the top of this page will reflect any changes. Material changes will be communicated via email to active subscribers or via prominent notice on the website, with at least 30 days' notice before taking effect.

16. How Can You Contact Us?

17. How Can You Review, Update, or Delete Your Data?

Based on applicable law, you may have the right to request access to, correction of, or deletion of your personal information. To do so:

• Log in and update your preferences directly in your account settings
• Email info@fieldestimate.org with your request — including requests to delete forecasts, watchlist items, or other user-generated data stored in Supabase
• Submit a data subject access request