Terms of
Service

1. Our Services

Field Estimate is a geopolitical research and forecasting platform that provides research tools and market data aggregation. The Service includes:

• Daily Briefings— AI-synthesized geopolitical news digests delivered via email by 6 AM ET, with a "Markets to Watch" section matching daily news to active prediction market contracts
• Research Workspace — a structured forecasting research methodology featuring AI-suggested causal factors, outside-view reference classes with historical base rates, inside-view adjustments, market comparison (your estimate vs. Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt prices), and decision logging
• Forecast Journal — a personal record of all your forecasts with live prediction market price feeds, Brier score tracking, and resolution monitoring
• Watchlist — curated selections of prediction market contracts you choose to monitor for research purposes
• Assumption Alerts — per-forecast assumption monitoring with email notifications when briefing content validates or challenges your recorded assumptions
• Trend Analysis — weekly synthesis of briefing themes using semantic clustering
• Economics Dashboard — macroeconomic indicators from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) displayed alongside your research
• Briefing Archive — searchable history of past briefings accessible on the web

The Service is operated from the United States and is intended for users who are at least 18 years of age. We make no representation that the Service is appropriate or available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring their use of the Service complies with all applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction, including any laws relating to prediction markets.

2. Intellectual Property Rights

Our intellectual property

The Service and its original content — including the website design, interface, underlying code, forecasting methodology, and the structure of AI-generated outputs — are owned by or licensed to Field Estimate and are protected by applicable copyright, trademark, and other intellectual property laws.

You are granted a limited, non-exclusive, non-transferable license to access and use the Service for personal or professional informational and research purposes during your active subscription. This license does not include the right to resell, redistribute, sublicense, or republish briefing content, forecast outputs, or research workspace data to third parties in bulk or as a commercial product.

Your content

Forecasts, decision logs, assumptions, watchlist selections, and other content you create within the Service remain your intellectual property. We claim no ownership of your user-generated research data. We use it solely to provide the Service to you.

Third-party content

Briefings are generated from news articles retrieved via third-party search services. Prediction market data is sourced from Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt. Community forecast data is sourced from Metaculus and Manifold. Economic data is sourced from FRED. Field Estimate does not claim ownership of any third-party content. Source links are included where available. Use of source content is subject to the original providers' terms.

3. User Representations

By using the Service, you represent and warrant that:

• You are at least 18 years of age and of legal age in your jurisdiction to enter into a binding agreement;
• Your registration information is accurate, current, and complete;
• You will maintain the accuracy of your information and update it as needed;
• You will not access the Service through automated or non-human means (bots, scripts, etc.) except as expressly permitted;
• You will not use the Service for any unlawful purpose or in violation of these Terms;
• You understand that the Service is a research tool that displays prediction market data for informational purposes only and does not facilitate, execute, or recommend trades;
• You understand that any decision to participate in prediction markets is made independently by you on third-party platforms, and you are solely responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in your jurisdiction regarding prediction markets;
• Your use of the Service does not violate any applicable law or regulation.

4. User Registration

You may be required to register for an account to access certain features. You are responsible for maintaining the confidentiality of your account credentials and for all activity that occurs under your account. You agree to notify us immediately of any unauthorized access or security breach at info@fieldestimate.org.

We reserve the right to remove, reclaim, or change usernames that are inappropriate, obscene, or otherwise objectionable.

5. Purchases and Payment

We accept the following payment methods through our payment processor, Stripe:

• Visa
• Mastercard
• American Express
• Discover

All prices are in US dollars. You agree to provide current, complete, and accurate billing information. By submitting payment information, you authorize us to charge the applicable subscription fees to your payment method.

All payments are processed by Stripe, Inc. We do not store your full payment card details. For more information, see Stripe's Privacy Policy.

We reserve the right to correct pricing errors and to refuse or cancel orders placed at an incorrect price.

6. Subscriptions and Free Access

Plans

We offer a single paid subscription plan:

Annual plans represent approximately two months' savings compared to monthly billing.

Free access

The markets browser, every contract intelligence page, and AI bull/bear analysis are free to everyone — no account required. Creating a free account additionally unlocks a watchlist of up to 5 contracts.

Pro features — the Opportunities Scanner, Strategy Builder, Calibration Edge overlay, and unlimited watchlist — require an active Pro subscription.

Billing

Subscriptions are billed in advance on a recurring basis (monthly or annual, per your selection). Your subscription renews automatically at the end of each billing period unless you cancel before the renewal date.

We reserve the right to change subscription fees. We will provide at least 30 days' written notice of any fee changes. Continued use of the Service after a fee change constitutes acceptance of the new pricing.

Cancellation

You may cancel your subscription at any time via the Stripe Customer Portal, accessible from your account settings. Cancellation takes effect at the end of your current paid billing period. You retain access through the period already paid. After cancellation, briefing delivery and access to all pro features will stop.

7. Refund Policy

Monthly subscriptions: No refunds are issued for monthly billing periods, whether partial or full.

Annual subscriptions: If you cancel an annual subscription within 30 days of the initial purchase or annual renewal date, you may request a prorated refund for the unused portion of the year. Refund requests must be submitted to info@fieldestimate.org with your account email and reason for cancellation. Refunds are issued to the original payment method within 5–10 business days.

Refunds are not available after the 30-day window, in cases of account termination for Terms violations, or for team subscription seat adjustments within an active billing period.

8. AI-Generated Content

Nature of AI outputs

Field Estimate uses Anthropic's Claude AI model to synthesize news briefings, suggest causal factors for forecasts, generate historical reference classes and base rates, match prediction market contracts to daily news, and produce weekly trend analyses. All AI-generated content is informational only and may contain errors, omissions, inaccuracies, or outdated information. The AI synthesizes and summarizes source material; it does not independently verify facts.

AI outputs are provided as analytical starting points to support your own research and judgment. They are not a substitute for primary source journalism, professional research, or expert analysis. AI-generated analysis should not be relied upon as financial advice, investment advice, trading recommendations, or any other form of professional advice.

No guarantee of completeness

Briefing coverage reflects what is available in search results at the time of generation. AI-suggested causal factors and reference classes are not exhaustive. The Service does not comprehensively monitor world events and may not capture all significant developments in a given region or topic area on any given day.

AI limitations

AI-generated content may occasionally reflect inaccuracies present in source material, generate plausible-sounding but incorrect information, or fail to distinguish between unverified claims and confirmed facts. We make no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any AI-generated content. Users should verify important information through primary sources before acting on it.

Your data and AI processing

Your configured preferences (regions, countries, topics) and forecast context (question text, causal factors) are passed to the AI model as inputs. Briefing content and market contract descriptions are processed through OpenAI's embedding model for semantic search and trend analysis. This data is processed by Anthropic and OpenAI subject to their respective privacy policies and data processing agreements. We do not knowingly transmit other personally identifying information to these AI providers.

9. Forecasting Tools and Prediction Market Data

Research Workspace

The Research Workspace provides a structured methodology for geopolitical forecasting research. AI-suggested causal factors, reference classes, and base rates are analytical aids, not definitive assessments. You are responsible for your own forecasting conclusions.

Prediction market data

The Service displays live contract prices from Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt, as well as community forecast data from Metaculus and Manifold, for informational and research purposes only. Field Estimate is a research tool, not a trading platform, exchange, or broker. No trades are executed on this platform. No funds are held by this platform. We do not facilitate, execute, or recommend trades on any prediction market. Prediction market prices reflect the views of those markets' participants and are not endorsed or verified by us.

Prediction market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. We make no warranty as to the timeliness, accuracy, or availability of any market data displayed. Users who wish to trade on prediction markets should visit the respective platforms directly.

Brier scores and calibration

The Forecast Journal tracks your calibration using Brier scores and resolution outcomes. These metrics measure the accuracy of your probability estimates over time. Historical calibration data shows tendencies, not guarantees of future accuracy. Calibration scores are personal performance indicators and should not be interpreted as endorsement of any particular forecast, outcome, or trading position.

Risk scores

Any risk scores, probability estimates, or confidence indicators displayed within the Service are informational only and are not recommendations. They reflect algorithmic outputs or user-entered values and should not be treated as advice to take or avoid any position on any prediction market or financial instrument.

Economic data

The Economics Dashboard displays macroeconomic indicators from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data). This data is publicly available and is displayed for informational context only. We do not guarantee its timeliness or accuracy beyond what FRED provides.

10. Third-Party Data Sources and Attribution

Field Estimate aggregates data from multiple third-party sources to power its research tools. The following data providers are used:

• Polymarket — prediction market contract prices and metadata
• Kalshi — prediction market contract prices and metadata
• PredictIt — prediction market contract prices and metadata
• Metaculus — community forecast aggregation and probability estimates
• Manifold — community forecast aggregation and probability estimates
• Tavily — multilingual news search (English, Arabic, Farsi, Hebrew) for briefing generation
• FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — macroeconomic indicators for the Economics Dashboard
• Anthropic (Claude AI) — AI model for content synthesis and analysis
• OpenAI — embedding model for semantic search and trend clustering

Field Estimate does not own, edit, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy of any third-party content or data. Source links and attributions are provided where available for your reference.

We are not responsible for the content, privacy practices, or terms of service of any third-party data provider, news publisher, prediction market, or website linked in the Service.

11. No Professional or Financial Advice

All content provided through the Service — including briefings, AI-suggested causal factors, reference classes, prediction market prices, Brier scores, risk scores, economic indicators, community forecasts, and trend analyses — is for general informational and research purposes only and does not constitute:

• Financial, investment, or trading advice or recommendations;
• Solicitation or endorsement of any prediction market position;
• A recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any contract on any prediction market;
• News media analysis or finished research products;
• Legal advice or legal analysis;
• Medical or health advice;
• Any other form of professional or expert advice.

You should not rely on the Service to make financial decisions, trading decisions, or any other decisions requiring professional judgment. We expressly disclaim any liability arising from reliance on any content provided through the Service.

12. Prediction Market Risk Disclosure

Prediction markets involve risk of loss.If you choose to trade on prediction markets, you do so independently and at your own risk. Field Estimate does not execute trades, hold funds, manage accounts, or provide access to any prediction market. Users who wish to participate in prediction markets should visit the respective platforms directly (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt) and review those platforms' own terms of service, risk disclosures, and applicable regulations.

Past performance of any forecast, calibration score, or prediction market contract is not indicative of future results. Market data displayed on Field Estimate is for research purposes only and should not be the sole basis for any trading decision.

Users must be of legal age and must comply with all applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction regarding prediction markets, including any restrictions on participation, trading, or wagering.

13. Prohibited Activities

You may not use the Service to:

• Circumvent, disable, or interfere with security features;
• Use automated tools (bots, scrapers, crawlers) to access, harvest, or redistribute content or data from the Service;
• Resell, sublicense, or redistribute briefing content, forecast outputs, or prediction market data as a commercial product or data service without our written consent;
• Upload or transmit viruses or malicious code;
• Attempt to gain unauthorized access to any portion of the Service or its infrastructure;
• Engage in any activity that could damage, overburden, or impair the Service;
• Use the Service to manipulate or attempt to manipulate any prediction market;
• Harass, abuse, or harm other users or our personnel;
• Violate any applicable law or regulation.

14. Service Management

We reserve the right to:

• Monitor the Service for violations of these Terms;
• Suspend or terminate access for users who violate these Terms;
• Remove or refuse content we deem inappropriate;
• Restrict or limit access to the Service at our discretion;
• Modify or discontinue any feature or the Service as a whole, with reasonable notice where feasible.

15. Privacy Policy

Your use of the Service is subject to our Privacy Policy, which is incorporated into these Terms by reference. Please review our Privacy Policy to understand our data collection and use practices.

16. Term and Termination

These Terms remain in effect while you use the Service. We may suspend or terminate your access at any time, with or without notice, for violation of these Terms or for any other reason at our discretion.

Upon termination:

• Your right to access the Service ends immediately;
• We may retain your data in accordance with our Privacy Policy (up to 12 months following account closure);
• Provisions that by their nature should survive termination — including IP rights, disclaimers, limitations of liability, indemnification, and dispute resolution — remain in effect.

If you wish to terminate your account, contact info@fieldestimate.org or manage your subscription via the Stripe Customer Portal.

17. Modifications and Interruptions

We reserve the right to modify or discontinue the Service (or any part thereof) at any time, with or without notice. We will not be liable for any modification, suspension, or discontinuation.

We do not guarantee that the Service will be available at all times. We may experience hardware, software, or infrastructure failures beyond our control. Third-party APIs (prediction markets, news search, economic data) may experience outages independently. We make no uptime guarantees and exclude all liability for service interruptions.

18. Governing Law

These Terms are governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the District of Columbia, United States, without regard to conflict of law principles. If you are a consumer located in a jurisdiction with mandatory consumer protection laws, those laws may apply to you in addition to DC law.

19. Dispute Resolution

Informal resolution

Before initiating formal proceedings, you agree to first attempt to resolve any dispute by contacting us at info@fieldestimate.org. We will make reasonable efforts to resolve disputes informally within 30 days.

Binding arbitration

If informal resolution fails, disputes shall be resolved by binding arbitration administered by the American Arbitration Association (AAA)under its Consumer Arbitration Rules. Arbitration will be conducted in the District of Columbia or, at your election, by telephone or video conference. The arbitrator's decision will be final and binding, subject to limited judicial review.

Exceptions

Either party may seek injunctive or other equitable relief in any court of competent jurisdiction to prevent irreparable harm. Small claims court actions within the applicable jurisdictional limit are also excluded from mandatory arbitration.

Class action waiver

You agree that disputes will be resolved only on an individual basis. You waive any right to participate in a class action lawsuit or class-wide arbitration.

Time limitation

Any claim must be brought within one year of the event giving rise to the claim. Claims not brought within this period are permanently barred.

20. Disclaimer of Warranties

THE SERVICE IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND "AS AVAILABLE" WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED. TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, WE DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION:

• WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT;
• WARRANTIES THAT THE SERVICE WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, ERROR-FREE, OR SECURE;
• WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR TIMELINESS OF ANY AI-GENERATED CONTENT, NEWS SUMMARIES, PREDICTION MARKET DATA, COMMUNITY FORECASTS, RISK SCORES, ECONOMIC INDICATORS, OR FORECASTING OUTPUTS;
• WARRANTIES THAT PREDICTION MARKET PRICES, BRIER SCORES, OR RISK SCORES REFLECT ANY PARTICULAR OUTCOME, PROBABILITY, OR RECOMMENDATION.

YOUR USE OF THE SERVICE IS AT YOUR SOLE RISK. FIELD ESTIMATE IS A RESEARCH TOOL AND DOES NOT EXECUTE TRADES, HOLD FUNDS, OR PROVIDE ACCESS TO ANY PREDICTION MARKET.

21. Limitation of Liability

TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, FIELD ESTIMATE AND ITS OFFICERS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, AND AGENTS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES — INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS, DATA, OR GOODWILL — ARISING FROM OR RELATED TO YOUR USE OF OR INABILITY TO USE THE SERVICE, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO DAMAGES ARISING FROM RELIANCE ON AI-GENERATED CONTENT, PREDICTION MARKET DATA, RISK SCORES, COMMUNITY FORECASTS, CALIBRATION METRICS, OR FORECASTING OUTPUTS.

OUR TOTAL LIABILITY TO YOU FOR ANY CLAIM ARISING FROM THESE TERMS OR YOUR USE OF THE SERVICE SHALL NOT EXCEED THE GREATER OF: (A) THE AMOUNT YOU PAID US IN THE SIX MONTHS PRECEDING THE CLAIM, OR (B) $50 USD.

SOME JURISDICTIONS DO NOT ALLOW THE LIMITATION OF CERTAIN DAMAGES. IN SUCH JURISDICTIONS, OUR LIABILITY IS LIMITED TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW.

22. Indemnification

You agree to defend, indemnify, and hold harmless Field Estimate and its officers, directors, employees, and agents from any claims, damages, losses, liabilities, costs, and expenses (including reasonable attorneys' fees) arising from: (a) your use of the Service; (b) your breach of these Terms; (c) your violation of any applicable law or third-party right; (d) any content you submit through the Service; or (e) any trading, financial, or prediction market decisions you make based on information obtained through the Service.

23. Electronic Communications

By using the Service and providing your email address, you consent to receive electronic communications from us, including account notifications, briefing deliveries, assumption alert notifications, billing communications, and service updates. You agree that all agreements, notices, and disclosures provided electronically satisfy any legal requirement that such communications be in writing.

Transactional email (briefings, assumption alerts, account notifications, billing) is sent via Resend. You may update your delivery preferences in your account settings. Unsubscribing from marketing communications does not affect delivery of briefings, assumption alerts, or account notifications.

24. Miscellaneous

Entire agreement: These Terms, together with the Privacy Policy, constitute the entire agreement between you and Field Estimate with respect to the Service.

Waiver: Failure to enforce any provision of these Terms shall not constitute a waiver of that provision.

Severability: If any provision is found unenforceable, the remaining provisions continue in full force.

Assignment: You may not assign your rights or obligations under these Terms without our written consent. We may assign our rights without restriction.

No agency: Nothing in these Terms creates a partnership, joint venture, employment, or agency relationship between you and Field Estimate.

Force majeure: We are not liable for delays or failures caused by events beyond our reasonable control, including outages of third-party services (Anthropic, OpenAI, Tavily, Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Metaculus, Manifold, FRED, Supabase, Stripe, Resend).

Updates to Terms: We may update these Terms from time to time. Material changes will be communicated via email to active subscribers or via prominent notice on the website at least 30 days before taking effect. Continued use after the effective date constitutes acceptance.

25. Contact Us

To submit a complaint, request account deletion, or exercise your privacy rights, see our Privacy Policy.