About
Field Estimate

Field Estimate is a prediction market intelligence platform built for Polymarket and Kalshi traders. It aggregates live pricing across Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt, computes fee-adjusted cross-platform divergences, and surfaces calibration-based edges on 14,000+ non-sports contracts — politics, economics, geopolitics, science, and crypto.

The platform is for the trader who reads before they trade. Rather than another news feed, it gives you the analytical layer on top of the markets: where a contract is priced, where it's priced on the other exchange, what a calibrated model says the probability actually is, and how much of your bankroll Kelly sizing justifies.

The Markets Browser lists every active contract with real-time pricing, volume, risk score, and a calibration edge filter. Each contract has its own intelligence page with price history, cross-platform divergence, community forecasts from Metaculus and Manifold, and AI-generated bull/bear analysis.

Calibration analysis applies the Le (2026) recalibration methodology — derived from 292M historical trades — to estimate whether the current market price systematically over- or underestimates the true probability, adjusted for favorite-longshot bias and time-to-resolution. Where we detect a meaningful gap, it's surfaced as a calibration edge in percentage points.

Strategy Case Studies walk through specific contracts with Kelly-adjusted position sizing, capital efficiency analysis, and the calibration rationale behind each scenario — so the methodology is transparent rather than a black box.

Each week, the blog publishes an educational post built around a featured contract — explaining the mechanism behind the edge (calibration bias, market microstructure, cross-platform divergence) rather than just naming it. Free, no signup required.

I'm Zed Tarar, a DC-based foreign policy professional. Staying ahead of geopolitical developments is a core part of the job — and the tools that existed for structured, multilingual news synthesis were either too expensive, too slow, or no longer available.

I started trading on Polymarket to pressure-test my own forecasts, and quickly learned what the research confirms: most retail participants lose money, and the edge comes from calibration, structural arbitrage, and understanding how prediction markets actually work — not from "having good opinions." Field Estimate is the tool I wished existed: calibration-grounded edge detection, Kelly-adjusted sizing, and cross-platform price discovery, in one place.