Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of

CalibrationThis market most closely resembles the weather/objective-data domain where research shows traders tend to be overconfident — prices overshoot in both directions relative to true probabilities, meaning longshot outcomes get systematically overpriced. Given the near-term resolution horizon, the universal horizon compression effect is minimal here, but the lack of a clean political or sports calibration anchor means the crowd's probability estimate carries more noise than usual — a Yes price that looks 'cheap' may already reflect accurate baseline traffic data that most traders haven't directly checked.

RisksWith substantial volume but a 7-day average threshold tied to a single external datasource, this market is vulnerable to IMF Portwatch publication lags or methodology shifts that are invisible to traders until it's too late — the 14-day grace period mitigates but doesn't eliminate this exposure. More insidiously, the high daily volatility with no autocorrelation (σ=24%/day, AC=-0.01) means this market is likely being driven by geopolitical news shocks that hit all Hormuz-adjacent markets simultaneously — traders holding correlated positions in oil, tanker, or regional conflict markets face amplified drawdown risk if the underlying event deteriorates.