Polymarketother

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

46%No 54¢

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ResolvesJul 31, 202677d 21h

RiskModerate

Price History

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions

Price near 50% — maximum uncertainty, expect swings

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

Resolves in ~78d — longer horizon, lower time pressure

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPolymarket32¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include c...

Polymarket

46¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 46¢

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Resolution Criteria