vol=$4,908,635, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=11.09%/day, AC=0.06, 30 points
This contract has low resolution risk due to a clearly specified, objective data source (IMF Portwatch) with quantifiable metrics (7-day moving average of transit calls ≥60). The threshold is unambiguous and verifiable directly from published data. Minor risks include potential data publication delays (mitigated by the 14-day grace period) and rare scenarios where IMF Portwatch methodology changes, but these are minimal concerns for an established international maritime tracking service.
Platform default: polymarket
48d to resolution, volume rising
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include c...