Markets
Risk Profile Consensus Landscape
Polymarketother
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of
3 outcomes32%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Price History
42
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
10
vol=$4,908,635, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
90
σ=11.09%/day, AC=0.06, 30 points
25
This contract has low resolution risk due to a clearly specified, objective data source (IMF Portwatch) with quantifiable metrics (7-day moving average of transit calls ≥60). The threshold is unambiguous and verifiable directly from published data. Minor risks include potential data publication delays (mitigated by the 14-day grace period) and rare scenarios where IMF Portwatch methodology changes, but these are minimal concerns for an established international maritime tracking service.
55
Platform default: polymarket
40
48d to resolution, volume rising
high_volatilityno_news_volatility
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include c...
Poly
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Poly: 32¢