Polymarketgeopolitical

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

2%No 98¢

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ResolvesMar 31, 2026Resolved0\u00A2 spread

RiskModerate

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Risk Profile

Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$3,941,812, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

100

σ=18.91%/day, AC=-0.23, 30 points

The contract has moderate-to-high resolution risk due to three key factors: (1) reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' as a vague oracle without specified sources or dispute mechanisms, (2) definitional ambiguities around what constitutes a qualifying 'strike' (e.g., determining if an intercepted missile counts, or distinguishing between military vs. non-military targets), and (3) potential disputes over attribution and whether a strike was truly 'initiated' by another country versus conducted with plausible deniability. The detailed exclusions help somewhat, but enforcement depends on subjective interpretation of reports.

Platform default: polymarket

1d to resolution, volume stable

high_volatilityunclear_resolutionno_news_volatility

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Related Contracts

OverlappingPolymarket1¢

Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?

Kuwait striking Iran is a specific subset of 'another country' striking Iran. Kuwait strike would make A true, but A could be true via other countries.

Anti-correlatedPolymarket0¢

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?

A specifies France, UK, or Germany striking Iran. B asks about 'another country' striking Iran. These are mutually exclusive conditions - if France, UK, or Germany strikes, then 'another country' hasn't.

OverlappingPolymarket1¢

Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?

An E.U. country striking Iran is a specific subset of 'another country' striking Iran. E.U. strike would make A true, but A could be true via non-E.U. country strike.

OverlappingPolymarket2¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Both involve Iran being struck by military action, but one is specifically US invasion and the other is any country striking. There's thematic overlap but they measure different outcomes.

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market...