Polymarketgeopolitical

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

2%No 98¢

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ResolvesMar 31, 2026Resolved0\u00A2 spread

RiskModerate

Price History

Risk Profile

Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$5,035,887, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

100

σ=31.38%/day, AC=-0.29, 31 points

High resolution risk due to ambiguous terms like 'commences,' 'military offensive,' and 'establish control' that lack precise definitions and could be disputed depending on the scale/nature of military action. The reliance on 'consensus of credible sources' rather than an objective oracle introduces subjectivity, and defining what constitutes an invasion versus limited strikes or covert operations creates significant interpretation disputes.

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1d to resolution, volume rising

high_volatilityunclear_resolutionno_news_volatility

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Related Contracts

CorrelatedPolymarket5¢

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Both contracts ask essentially the same question about whether US forces will enter Iran by March 31, just with slightly different wording ('enter' vs 'invade').

CausalPolymarket13¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

A is a specific subset of B (invasion by March 31 is a subset of invasion before 2027). If A resolves YES, B must resolve YES. This is a clear causal/temporal relationship.

OverlappingPolymarket0¢

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Both involve US military action against Iran by similar timeframes, but one requires formal declaration of war while the other just requires invasion. These are related but distinct conditions.

OverlappingPolymarket2¢

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Both involve Iran being struck by military action, but one is specifically US invasion and the other is any country striking. There's thematic overlap but they measure different outcomes.

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United S...

Polymarket

2¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

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