Polymarketgeopolitical

US forces enter Iran by..?

2 outcomes

100%April 30

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ResolvesMar 31, 2026Resolved0\u00A2 spread

RiskModerate

Price History

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$267,170,366, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 31 points

High ambiguity surrounds the intent and deliberateness thresholds ('deliberately enter for operational purposes'), the distinction between military operations vs. humanitarian missions, and reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' rather than official sources. Edge cases like accidental border crossings, covert operations, or contested characterizations of military presence create significant dispute potential.

Platform default: polymarket

0d to resolution, volume stable

unclear_resolution

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Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must phy...

Polymarket

100¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 100¢

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