Markets
Risk Profile Consensus Landscape
Polymarketgeopolitical
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
2 outcomes5%December 31
Price History
40
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
24
vol=$350,536, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
62
σ=6.46%/day, AC=0.02, 31 points
15
This contract has low resolution risk due to a clear, objective legal criterion: a formal congressional declaration of war is a verifiable act of law with unambiguous documentation. While the resolution source relies on 'credible reporting consensus,' formal declarations of war are well-established constitutional instruments with indisputable public records, leaving minimal room for dispute or interpretation.
55
Platform default: polymarket
60
269d to resolution, volume stable
high_volatilityno_news_volatility
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its c...
Poly
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Poly: 5¢