Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?

vol=$474,098, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=28.61%/day, AC=-0.46, 29 points

The contract has moderate resolution risk due to several interpretation challenges: (1) 'credible reporting consensus' is subjective and could face disputes if coverage is fragmented or contradictory, (2) the distinction between intentional strikes and intercepted missiles requires establishing intent/causation which may be ambiguous, and (3) defining official embassy/consulate boundaries and what constitutes 'Iranian soil' could generate edge-case disputes, though the core military action itself (drone/missile/airstrike) is relatively objectively verifiable.

Platform default: polymarket

1d to resolution, volume unknown