Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?

vol=$4,799,263, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=35.97%/day, AC=-0.14, 31 points

The contract has moderate-to-high resolution risk due to reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' without a designated oracle, and potential ambiguity around what constitutes a strike (e.g., disputed claims, attribution challenges, intercepted vs. detonated missiles). The specific exclusions help clarity, but geopolitical events often have contested narratives that could trigger disputes.

Platform default: polymarket

1d to resolution, volume stable