Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

vol=$1,355,742, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 31 points

The contract has moderate-to-high resolution risk due to several factors: (1) reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' as an oracle is subjective and potentially disputed, especially for sensitive military operations that may lack official confirmation; (2) definitions like 'official Iranian embassy or consulate' and distinction between intentional strikes vs. intercepted weapons require interpretation; (3) geopolitical sensitivity makes independent verification difficult, and countries may deny or dispute involvement. The technical specifications (drones, missiles, aerial bombs) are relatively clear, but the evidentiary threshold for what constitutes a qualifying strike remains ambiguous.

Platform default: polymarket

9d to resolution, volume stable