Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?

vol=$211,998, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=52.92%/day, AC=-0.26, 5 points

The contract has a moderately clear binary trigger (military strike occurrence), but faces several ambiguities: reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' as oracle without dispute mechanism, potential disagreement over what constitutes a qualifying weapon (e.g., is a standoff cruise missile vs. drone strike interpretation clear?), and the distinction between intercepts and impacts could be contested if initial reports are conflicting. The well-defined scope (drone/missile/air strikes only, excluding artillery/cyber) mitigates risk but the vague sourcing and lack of structured adjudication process elevates it to moderate-high uncertainty.

Platform default: polymarket

1d to resolution, volume stable