Polymarketgeopolitical

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

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ResolvesMar 31, 2026Resolved0\u00A2 spread

RiskModerate

Price History

Risk Profile

Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$56,133,847, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=28.59%/day, AC=-0.18, 31 points

This contract has high resolution risk due to multiple subjective criteria including what constitutes 'broad consensus of reporting,' whether structures are 'incapacitated' versus fully dissolved, and determining when the Islamic Republic 'loses de facto power' over the majority population. The reliance on consensus interpretation rather than an objective oracle, combined with the geopolitical sensitivity of regime change assessment, creates significant dispute potential. Edge cases like partial state collapse, transitional governments, or contested control could generate legitimate disagreement on whether resolution criteria are met.

Platform default: polymarket

1d to resolution, volume stable

high_volatilityunclear_resolutionno_news_volatility

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Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures...