Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

ResolutionThe resolution bar here is extraordinarily high — it requires dissolution of the Supreme Leader's office, Guardian Council, AND IRGC clerical authority, with 'broad consensus of credible reporting' agreeing the Islamic Republic no longer governs a majority of Iranians. In a real revolutionary scenario, fragmented governance, competing successor claims, and contested legitimacy could leave this contract ambiguous for days or weeks beyond April 30, creating a timing trap where 'Yes' holders believe they've won but resolution drags or resolves 'No' on technicality.

CalibrationPolymarket political contracts have the worst outcome-correctness of major platforms (67% per Clinton & Huang 2025), meaning mispricing is more common here than on Kalshi or PredictIt — but that cuts both ways, and in longshot political markets the dominant error is overpricing low-probability 'Yes' outcomes due to retail attention bias. Research on Kalshi shows contracts priced under 10 cents lose over 60% of capital on average (Burgi et al. 2025); while that finding is Kalshi-specific, the underlying dynamic — retail overconfidence in dramatic-but-unlikely outcomes — is the same cognitive bias Snowberg & Wolfers identify as persistent and structural.

RisksThe June 30 version of this market trades as a deep longshot for the same underlying event — if you're long 'Yes' here, you're exposed to a structural trap where even a genuine destabilization event might not clear the April 30 definitional bar, while the June version captures the same upside with more runway. More dangerously, this market's extreme daily volatility (nearly 20% per day) combined with a negative autocorrelation signal means sharp price spikes reverse quickly — traders chasing momentum into 'Yes' positions on news bursts are systematically buying the top of mean-reverting moves.