Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

vol=$19,020,581, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=16.44%/day, AC=-0.39, 31 points

This contract carries high resolution risk due to inherently subjective criteria around what constitutes regime 'collapse' versus political upheaval. Key ambiguities include: distinguishing between 'lost de facto power over majority' versus continued administrative control during civil conflict, determining when 'core structures' are sufficiently 'dissolved or incapacitated,' and relying on 'consensus of credible reporting' rather than objective institutional markers. Disputes could arise over contested succession scenarios, territorial fragmentation, or transitional government legitimacy.

Platform default: polymarket

18d to resolution, volume rising