Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

CalibrationResearch on Polymarket shows only 67% outcome-correctness on political markets (vs 93% on PredictIt), meaning the crowd here is more often wrong than on any other major platform — this is exactly the kind of exotic geopolitical binary where that miscalibration is most severe. The universal compression-toward-50% bias means long-dated political longshots are systematically overpriced; as this market moves toward resolution, expect the 'Yes' price to drift lower simply due to calibration correction, independent of any ground-truth news.

RisksThe related market structure creates a liquidity trap: if you're long 'Yes' here and the April 30 market resolves 'No,' that event carries strong information content that will hammer this contract's price immediately — you're holding correlated exposure that can gap down sharply with no ability to exit at fair value during the price dislocation. With substantial volume but a 0-cent quoted spread, this market's liquidity is likely concentrated at the current price level and will evaporate instantly on a major news shock, leaving market orders to walk a very thin book.