Does the current price reflect a genuine shift in Iran's internal stability, or is it elevated purely by a recent news cycle that will fade?

If a transitional scenario emerges — say an IRGC-led government that removes clerical figures but preserves military control — have you modeled the realistic probability that Polymarket resolvers call that a 'No' under these strict criteria?

If a transitional scenario emerges — say an IRGC-led government that removes clerical figures but preserves military control — have you modeled the realistic probability that Polymarket resolvers call that a 'No' under these strict criteria?

Given the related 'by March 31' market has already resolved or is trading as a deep longshot, is there meaningful new information that changes the regime-collapse probability for the remaining resolution window, or is this just residual speculative premium?

Given the related 'by March 31' market has already resolved or is trading as a deep longshot, is there meaningful new information that changes the regime-collapse probability for the remaining resolution window, or is this just residual speculative premium?

Markets

Polymarketgeopolitical

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

19%No 82¢

Calibrated↓ 7%

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ResolvesDec 31, 2026230d 22h1\u00A2 spread

Price History

Structural Analysis

AI-generated

This is a longshot political contract, and research shows longshot political contracts are systematically overpriced — retail traders consistently overpay for low-probability, high-drama outcomes because prospect theory makes them feel more likely than they are. The related 'by March 31' market already trading as a deep longshot tells you the market has been pricing regime collapse as perpetually imminent and perpetually wrong, which means the current price likely still carries a sentiment premium above the true probability.

ResolutionThe resolution criteria are unusually strict — a provisional government, factional takeover, or partial territorial loss explicitly doesn't qualify unless core clerical structures are fully dissolved and the regime loses de facto control over a majority of the population, which means a chaotic transition scenario that looks like collapse could still resolve 'No' if the IRGC maintains control of Tehran. The 'broad consensus of credible reporting' standard is itself a trap: in a fast-moving revolutionary situation, credible outlets will disagree for days or weeks, creating a timing dispute about when — or whether — the threshold was actually crossed.

CalibrationPolitical contracts at long horizons are systematically compressed toward 50% — traders underestimate how extreme the true probabilities are at both ends — so a longshot political contract priced well below 50% is likely even less probable than its price implies, not more. The Polymarket platform also shows the weakest outcome-correctness of major exchanges (67% per Clinton & Huang 2025), meaning prices here are less reliable signals of true probability than on competing platforms, which is relevant if you're trying to assess whether the current price reflects informed money.

RisksExtreme daily volatility (above 10% per day) signals this market moves on news cycles and social media sentiment rather than fundamentals, meaning your position can be punished severely by a single provocative headline even if the underlying probability barely changes. With thin liquidity relative to the volume of hot-money traders this market attracts, any exit during a volatility spike will cost you materially — you can be right directionally and still lose money if you need to unwind at an unfavorable spread.

Questions worth asking

Does the current price reflect a genuine shift in Iran's internal stability, or is it elevated purely by a recent news cycle that will fade?
If a transitional scenario emerges — say an IRGC-led government that removes clerical figures but preserves military control — have you modeled the realistic probability that Polymarket resolvers call that a 'No' under these strict criteria?
Given the related 'by March 31' market has already resolved or is trading as a deep longshot, is there meaningful new information that changes the regime-collapse probability for the remaining resolution window, or is this just residual speculative premium?

Risk Profile

Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$17,597,664, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=8.49%/day, AC=-0.08, 31 points

This contract carries high resolution risk due to several subjective interpretation challenges: what constitutes "broad consensus of reporting," whether partial regime fragmentation qualifies as "ceases to govern," and how to verify "de facto power over a majority of population." The distinction between regime collapse and routine political succession requires judgment calls that could generate legitimate disputes, and the reliance on consensus rather than objective metrics creates potential for Oracle disagreement.

Platform default: polymarket

232d to resolution, volume stable

high_volatilityunclear_resolutionno_news_volatility

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structu...

Polymarket

19¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 19¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Questions worth asking

Calibration Edge

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Resolution Criteria