Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

vol=$10,573,306, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=33.37%/day, AC=0.04, 31 points

The contract requires interpreting whether China 'commences a military offensive' with 'intent to establish control'—subjective terms that could be disputed depending on the scale, duration, and declared purpose of military action. While official confirmation sources are specified, the fallback to 'consensus of credible reporting' introduces discretion, and distinguishing between hostile military exercises, blockades, and formal invasions creates ambiguity in real-world scenarios.

Platform default: polymarket

1d to resolution, volume stable