MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Calibration Edge
Cost$81.50
Expected Value+$11.36
ROI+13.9%
Kelly %61.4%
Over 100 similar trades: ~93 wins (+$17.21) and ~7 losses (-$5.71)
30
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
15
High volume — deep liquidity, tight spreads likely
42
Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
20
Resolves in ~596d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
Long-dated
Order Book
Top Holders
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, inc...
Poly
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 19¢