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Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? — Live odds on Polymarket | Field Estimate

Polymarketgeopolitical

Will China invade Taiwan by

2 outcomes

5%Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

ResolvesSep 30, 2026138d 21h

Price History

Risk Profile

33

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

35

Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions

25

Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected

40

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

30

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

30

Resolves in ~139d — longer horizon, lower time pressure

Order Book

Top Holders

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All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, in...

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 5¢

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