Markets
Risk Profile Consensus Landscape
Polymarketgeopolitical
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30,
2 outcomes14%Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Price History
34
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
35
Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions
37
Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
20
Resolves in ~412d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
Long-dated
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, includi...
Poly
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Poly: 14¢