Will China invade Taiwan by

CalibrationLe (2026) found that Polymarket has the weakest outcome-correctness of the major platforms (67% vs. 93% on PredictIt), and political long-horizon markets compress toward 50% — meaning longshot geopolitical contracts at long horizons tend to be *more* overpriced than they appear. The horizon effect means that even if the true probability is very low, crowd pricing systematically inflates it further at this distance from resolution, so the 'No' side likely has the calibration edge.

RisksThe related markets create a cross-market trap: if you hold 'Yes' here and a comparable end-of-2026 contract, you have correlated exposure to the same tail event with compounded capital at risk — many traders don't realize they're doubling down on the same geopolitical scenario across contracts. The extreme daily volatility (10%+ per day) is driven by news cycles, not genuine probability updates, meaning a single headline can reprice the contract wildly and force you out of a position before resolution vindicates you.