Markets
Risk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Live Economic Dataas of 2026-06-17
Daily Fed Funds
3.63%0.0%
2Y Treasury Yield
4.05%-0.5%
10Y Treasury Yield
4.43%-0.9%
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
0.29%-23.7%
US Crude Oil Stocks
418.2Kthousand barrels-1.9%
US Crude Oil Production
13.8Kthousand b/d+0.1%
Correlation with Daily Fed Funds: r = 0.01(negligible, n=15)
FREDEIA
39
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
35
Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions
57
Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
30
Resolves in ~89d — longer horizon, lower time pressure
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target...
Poly
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 70¢