Polymarketeconomics

Fed Decision in July?

5 outcomes

72%No change

Trade →

ResolvesJul 29, 202639d 17h

RiskModerate

Price History

Live Economic Dataas of 2026-06-17

Daily Fed Funds

3.63%0.0%

2Y Treasury Yield

4.05%-0.5%

10Y Treasury Yield

4.43%-0.9%

10Y-2Y Yield Spread

0.29%-23.7%

US Crude Oil Stocks

418.2Kthousand barrels-1.9%

US Crude Oil Production

13.8Kthousand b/d+0.1%

Correlation with Daily Fed Funds: r = 0.05(negligible, n=88)

FREDEIA

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$2,285,904, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=3.45%/day, AC=-0.23, 31 points

This contract has very low resolution risk as it relies on objective, publicly verifiable data from the Federal Reserve's official FOMC statements and published federal funds rate decisions. The resolution criteria clearly specify the measurement method (basis point change in upper bound), the rounding rule, and authoritative sources, with a fallback provision for edge cases.

Platform default: polymarket

41d to resolution, volume rising

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPolymarket100¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Both contracts concern Fed rate decisions in consecutive months. If rates remain unchanged in June, there's a higher probability they remain unchanged in July due to policy continuity, though independent factors could change this between meetings.

CorrelatedPolymarket100¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Fed interest rate decisions in April and July 2026 show moderate correlation - policy stability over a quarter is somewhat likely, though less certain than adjacent meetings.

CorrelatedPolymarket70¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

CorrelatedPolymarket82¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target...

Polymarket

72¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 72¢