Fed decision in April?

ResolutionThe rounding-up rule is asymmetric and trader-hostile in one specific scenario: a non-standard cut (e.g., 37.5 bps) rounds UP to 50 bps and resolves YES — which is actually favorable for YES holders if the Fed ever experiments with unconventional increments. The key trap is that resolution triggers on the FOMC statement release date, not the meeting start date, so any position held through overnight gaps on April 29 carries statement-timing risk.

CalibrationFinance-domain markets show the widest calibration dispersion in the research — prices can drift significantly from true probabilities, especially at long horizons, but this market resolves imminently so that specific distortion is reduced. The more relevant finding: on Polymarket specifically, large trades do NOT amplify the underconfidence effect seen on Kalshi, so a price spike driven by a large order here is less likely to signal informed conviction and more likely to be noise worth fading.