Polymarketeconomics

Fed Decision in June?

5 outcomes

100%No change

Trade →

ResolvesJun 17, 2026Resolved0\u00A2 spread

RiskLow

Price History

Live Economic Dataas of 2026-06-17

Daily Fed Funds

3.63%0.0%

2Y Treasury Yield

4.05%-0.5%

10Y Treasury Yield

4.43%-0.9%

10Y-2Y Yield Spread

0.29%-23.7%

US Crude Oil Stocks

418.2Kthousand barrels-1.9%

US Crude Oil Production

13.8Kthousand b/d+0.1%

Correlation with Daily Fed Funds: r = 0.01(negligible, n=89)

FREDEIA

Risk Profile

Low Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$29,071,223, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=0.18%/day, AC=-0.01, 31 points

The contract has very clear resolution criteria based on objective, publicly verifiable data from official Federal Reserve sources. The FOMC meeting date is fixed (June 16-17, 2026), the resolution metric is the upper bound of the target federal funds range expressed in basis points, and rounding rules are explicitly defined. The only minor risk is potential ambiguity if the FOMC unexpectedly delays its statement, but the contract addresses this with a fallback resolution rule.

Platform default: polymarket

0d to resolution, volume rising

Order Book

Top Holders

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All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target...

Polymarket

100¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 100¢

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