Fed Decision in July?

ResolutionThe rounding rule is the one genuine trap here: a 12.5 bps move (unprecedented but not impossible if the Fed ever experiments with non-standard increments) resolves as a 25 bps hike, which could catch traders off guard in a tail scenario. The market also resolves on the FOMC statement itself — not the subsequent press conference or dot plot — so any ambiguity between the statement language and the actual rate table is resolved by the openmarket.htm data, not interpretation.

CalibrationFinance markets show prices for longshots systematically overstate true probabilities — contracts priced as deep longshots tend to resolve NO far more often than their price implies, consistent with the favorite-longshot bias driven by retail cognitive mispricing. The volume here is moderate but not massive, and Polymarket has the weakest outcome-correctness rate among major exchanges (67% vs 93% on PredictIt), meaning the price discovery in this niche rate-hike scenario is less reliable than it would be on competing platforms.