Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

CalibrationPolitical markets on Polymarket show outcome-correctness of only 67% (vs. 93% on PredictIt), meaning the crowd here is systematically worse at pricing political probabilities — and for long-dated contracts, research shows prices compress toward 50% rather than reflecting true odds, which means longshots in this field are likely overpriced right now and will drift lower as the nomination approaches. The political domain also shows persistent underconfidence in favorites, meaning the actual frontrunner in this 44-candidate field is probably even more dominant than their price suggests, further squeezing value from the tail candidates.

RisksThis is a long-dated market with stable volume, meaning the universal horizon compression effect is fully active — prices across all 44 candidates are being dragged toward 50% relative to their true probabilities, artificially inflating longshot prices in a way that will slowly correct as resolution approaches. The $1B+ event volume (as of 2026-04-14) creates a false sense of liquidity security; individual candidate contracts in a 44-outcome field can have near-zero personal liquidity even when event-level volume looks healthy, trapping you in a position you can't exit at a fair price.