2028 Democratic presidential nominee

CalibrationResearch on Kalshi specifically shows large trades amplify political underconfidence — meaning big money in political markets on Kalshi tends to underprice high-probability outcomes even more aggressively than small trades do. With substantial volume already in this event, the prices you're seeing are likely being pushed further from true probabilities by large-order flow, which means the market is probably mispricing Newsom relative to his actual nomination odds in whichever direction the crowd has consensus.

RisksThree related markets across Polymarket and PredictIt are pricing essentially the same outcome, and research documents that identical political contracts routinely diverge across exchanges — if you're long here without monitoring cross-platform prices, you're exposed to being on the wrong side of that spread when arbitrageurs eventually close it. The 938-day horizon combined with high daily volatility (4%/day) means position drawdowns can be severe and prolonged even if your directional thesis is ultimately correct — a forced liquidation or margin pressure mid-horizon can destroy a correct long-run bet.