Presidential Election Winner 2028

ResolutionThis is a multi-outcome market with 36 candidates, meaning capital is spread across many positions and the market-level volume ($523.9M event-wide) does not represent LeBron-specific liquidity — his contract likely has thin, easily manipulated depth. The resolution fallback to inauguration date is clean, but a contested 2028 election could delay AP/Fox/NBC convergence, briefly trapping capital in open positions even if the outcome is politically clear.

CalibrationResearch on long-dated markets shows that all prediction market domains compress prices toward 50% at long horizons — meaning even very unlikely outcomes get priced *higher* than their true probability when resolution is far away, because the crowd anchors to uncertainty rather than evidence. For a novelty longshot like this one, that compression bias works against the NO holder in the short run, but the structural longshot trap means the YES side still bleeds capital over time as the market gradually reprices toward reality.