Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

CalibrationResearch on political prediction markets shows that long-dated contracts systematically compress toward 50% — meaning very low probabilities are overstated and very high probabilities are understated at long horizons. For a candidate priced as a deep longshot with resolution this far out, the market is likely overpricing Pence relative to his true probability, not underpricing him — the universal horizon compression bias runs against longshot buyers here, not in their favor.

RisksThe $551M event-level volume is spread across 35 candidates, meaning individual contract liquidity is likely thin — the 10/100 liquidity score confirms this, and thin books mean any position of size moves the price significantly against you, trapping you in a wide spread. Additionally, this market has correlated exposure to every other candidate in the field: if a new frontrunner emerges and attracts capital, Pence's price will drop not because anything changed about Pence, but because the market is repricing the entire field — a correlation risk most traders don't model.