Polymarketother

Which company has the best AI model end of April?

15 outcomes

99%Anthropic

Trade →

ResolvesApr 30, 2026Resolved

RiskLow

Price History

Risk Profile

Low Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$1,906,251, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 31 points

This contract has low resolution risk due to a clearly defined, objective oracle (Chatbot Arena leaderboard with specific table and timestamp). The main risk factors are potential leaderboard unavailability and the remote possibility of tied scores requiring tiebreaker application, but the fallback provisions and explicit ranking methodology substantially mitigate ambiguity.

Platform default: polymarket

0d to resolution, volume stable

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

Anti-correlatedPolymarket0¢

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Only one entity can have the 'best AI model' at any given time. If Anthropic has the best model in April 2026, xAI cannot have the best model in March 2026 (earlier timeframe). These are mutually exclusive outcomes.

Anti-correlatedPolymarket0¢

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Both contracts concern which company has the best AI model, but at different times. While temporal separation allows for some possibility of both occurring (if leadership changes), they represent competing outcomes for leadership positions.

CausalPolymarket96¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

If Anthropic has the best AI model in April 2026, there's increased probability they'll maintain it in June 2026. April outcome causally influences June probability.

CorrelatedPolymarket100¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

If Anthropic has the best AI model in March, it's more likely they maintain that position into April, though competitor advances could change rankings within a month.

CorrelatedPolymarket100¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text...

Polymarket

99¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 99¢

Calibration Edge · Pro

Pro subscribers see the historical edge (in percentage points) and an interpretation grounded in Le (2026) recalibration data. Upgrade to $9/mo to unlock.