MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
31
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
20
vol=$545,180, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
19
σ=1.09%/day, AC=0.12, 31 points
25
Resolution depends on clearly verifiable market data (SpaceX's closing share price and shares outstanding on IPO day) from official exchange listings, which are objective and publicly documented. The main residual risks are minor: potential ambiguity if trading is halted/interrupted (though criteria address this), and the remote possibility of conflicting official sources, but these are well-mitigated by the contract's explicit fallback procedures.
55
Platform default: polymarket
60
621d to resolution, volume stable
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Poly
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 94¢
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstandi...