MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
43
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
35
Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions
76
Price near 50% — maximum uncertainty, expect swings
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
20
Resolves in ~620d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
Long-dated
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Poly
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 47¢
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstandi...