Polymarketother

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

12 outcomes

90%SpaceX

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ResolvesDec 31, 2026255d 3h

RiskModerate

Price History

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$179,551, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=0.98%/day, AC=-0.17, 4 points

The contract has clear, objective resolution criteria based on verifiable financial data (market cap on first trading day, using official exchange sources and Federal Reserve rates). Primary risks are minimal: potential ambiguity around which exchange is "primary" for dual-listed companies, rare edge cases involving trading halts, and the dependency on timely official disclosures, but these are well-addressed by the fallback provisions.

Platform default: polymarket

276d to resolution, volume stable

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

Anti-correlatedPolymarket0¢

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?

If SpaceX has the highest IPO market cap in 2026 (A), it's unlikely to fall in the narrow $600B-$700B range (B). Having the highest implies a higher valuation than this specific range.

Anti-correlatedPolymarket94¢

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

If SpaceX has the highest IPO market cap in 2026 (A), it's unlikely to be exactly >$1T at market close on IPO day (B). The highest cap would likely be higher than $1T, and the specificity of $1T makes simultaneous YES resolution unlikely.

All Outcomes

Polymarket

90¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 90¢

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026...