MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Calibration Edge
Cost$63.00
Expected Value+$8.52
ROI+13.5%
Kelly %23.0%
Over 100 similar trades: ~72 wins (+$26.64) and ~28 losses (-$17.64)
41
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
35
Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions
64
Price near 50% — maximum uncertainty, expect swings
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
30
Resolves in ~42d — longer horizon, lower time pressure
Order Book
Top Holders
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If ...
Poly
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 63¢