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Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — Live odds on Polymarket | Field Estimate

Polymarketgeopolitical

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

5 outcomes

22%July 31

ResolvesJun 30, 202610d 21h

Price History

Risk Profile

37

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

35

Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions

46

Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected

40

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

30

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

30

Resolves in ~42d — longer horizon, lower time pressure

Order Book

Top Holders

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All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ende...

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 22¢

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