vol=$14,397,915, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=6.02%/day, AC=-0.18, 31 points
The resolution criteria require distinguishing between a 'permanent' peace deal versus temporary agreements, which introduces interpretation risk—what constitutes definitively 'permanent' versus a de facto long-term ceasefire could be disputed. Additionally, reliance on 'clear public confirmation' from governments leaves room for ambiguity if statements are ambiguous or contradictory, and the fallback to 'consensus of credible reporting' introduces subjective judgment about which sources are sufficiently authoritative.
Platform default: polymarket
196d to resolution, volume rising
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United St...