Markets
Risk Profile Consensus Landscape
Kalshiother
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
34 outcomes87%Gavin Newsom
Price History
41
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
60
Low volume — wider spreads, slippage possible
36
Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
20
Resolves in ~588d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
Long-dated
Order Book
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Kalshi
If Gavin Newsom announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.
Cross-Platform: Gavin Newsom
Kalshi87¢
PredictIt24¢
Spread63¢
+54.4% fee-adjusted edge
Kalshi
PI
0%25%50%75%100%
Kalshi: 87¢
PI: 24¢