2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

CalibrationResearch on Kalshi political markets shows prices are systematically too low for true probabilities — a longshot political contract here likely understates real probability somewhat, but the more important finding is that large traders on Kalshi amplify this underconfidence effect significantly, meaning the market's price may be pulled further from truth by whale activity than on Polymarket. However, Kalshi's outcome-correctness rate of 78% versus Polymarket's 67% for political markets means you should weight the cross-market comparison carefully — a Polymarket price for the same outcome isn't automatically a more reliable signal.

RisksWith three possible outcomes in this multi-contract market, positions in Rubio are implicitly short every other candidate — a correlated portfolio risk most traders ignore, especially since the Republican nomination market on Kalshi and the PredictIt version are trading at similar longshot levels, creating a fragmented liquidity trap if you need to hedge or exit. The high daily volatility flagged here (over 6% per day) with strong mean-reversion (negative autocorrelation near -0.47) signals that price moves are driven by sentiment noise, not information — chasing moves in either direction is a documented loser's game on long-dated contracts.