Kalshiother

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

25 outcomes

20%J.D. Vance

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ResolvesNov 7, 20291263d 19h1.4M vol1\u00A2 spread

RiskLow

Also trades on Polymarket (36 outcomes)Also trades on PredictIt (13 outcomes)

Price History

Polymarket vs Kalshi

Raw gap4¢

Fee-adjusted edge2¢

Positive EV for 180h (30 snapshots)

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$2,274,093, spread=0.0¢, OI=1402550

σ=3.27%/day, AC=-0.10, 31 points

This contract has very low resolution risk due to a clear, objective, and verifiable outcome: whether J.D. Vance is inaugurated as President on January 20, 2029. The resolution criteria references an official government event (presidential inauguration) with a specific, determinable date and public record, leaving minimal room for interpretation or dispute.

Platform default: kalshi

1264d to resolution, volume stable

kalshi_flb_warning

Order Book

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPolymarket19¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Both contracts ask about JD Vance winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election. They are essentially identical questions on different platforms.

CorrelatedPredictit25¢

Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — JD Vance

These are identical questions about JD Vance winning the 2028 presidential election, just on different platforms.

CausalPredictit38¢

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — JD Vance

Vance must win the Republican nomination to win the general election. Winning the nomination is a necessary prerequisite.

CausalPolymarket34¢

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Vance must win the Republican nomination to win the general election. Winning the nomination is a necessary but not sufficient condition for winning the presidency.

CausalKalshi38¢

2028 Republican presidential nominee

The Republican nominee is a key determinant of the election outcome. If the Republican nominee wins, it likely involves the specific nominee question, but the winner could be any Republican.

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Kalshi

If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Cross-Platform: J.D. Vance

PredictIt25¢

Kalshi20¢

Polymarket19¢

Spread6¢

+3.5% fee-adjusted edge

Consensus Landscape

Poly

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 19¢

Kalshi: 20¢

PI: 25¢

Kalshi contracts below 20¢ show significant favorite-longshot bias. historically outperform taker (market) orders by ~20%.

Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122