vol=$2,274,093, spread=0.0¢, OI=1402550
σ=5.59%/day, AC=-0.04, 31 points
This contract has low resolution risk due to binary verifiability through official government sources. The inauguration event and presidential identity are objectively verifiable facts documented by Congress and the federal government, leaving minimal room for interpretation or dispute.
Platform default: kalshi
1245d to resolution, volume stable
If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi contracts below 20¢ show significant favorite-longshot bias. historically outperform taker (market) orders by ~20%.
Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122