Markets
Risk Profile Consensus Landscape
Polymarketgeopolitical
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
5%No 95¢
Calibrated↓ 1%
Price History
Calibration Edge
Cost$95.15
Expected Value+$4.27
ROI+4.5%
Kelly %88.1%
Over 100 similar trades: ~99 wins (+$4.80) and ~1 losses (-$0.95)
33
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
35
Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions
26
Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
30
Resolves in ~47d — longer horizon, lower time pressure
Order Book
Top Holders
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end d...
Poly
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 5¢
Calibration Edge · Pro
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