Polymarketgeopolitical

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

16%No 85¢

Calibrated↓ 5%

Trade →

ResolvesDec 31, 2026230d 22h

Price History

Calibration Edge

Le 2026

Market

85 ¢

Calibrated

95 ¢

+10.4pp edge

Position size

Cost$84.50

Expected Value+$10.45

ROI+12.4%

Kelly %67.4%

Over 100 similar trades: ~95 wins (+$14.73) and ~5 losses (-$4.22)

Slope 1.73 · geopolitical · 1mo+Historical calibration — not investment advice

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$2,145,270, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=1.11%/day, AC=-0.04, 31 points

The core resolution criterion—whether Zelenskyy ceases to be president—is objectively verifiable through official government sources. However, moderate risk exists from the announcement clause (resolution triggered by resignation announcement regardless of effective date), which could create disputes over what constitutes a formal/credible announcement, and potential ambiguity around Ukraine's governmental continuity during conflict or institutional disruption.

Platform default: polymarket

232d to resolution, volume stable

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPolymarket0¢

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?

Both contracts ask essentially the same question with nearly identical timeframes - whether Zelenskyy leaves office by end of 2026/before 2027. These are effectively the same contract.

CorrelatedPolymarket5¢

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end d...

Polymarket

16¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 16¢