vol=$2,750,355, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=13.58%/day, AC=-0.29, 31 points
This contract carries high resolution risk due to reliance on undefined "credible reporting" for a geopolitically sensitive event involving China's opaque power structures. The criteria use vague language like "otherwise loses his position" and "prevented from fulfilling duties," which could be interpreted differently if Xi temporarily steps back due to health issues, delegation of authority, or if he maintains nominal power while being effectively sidelined—scenarios with no clear consensus threshold.
Platform default: polymarket
48d to resolution, volume rising
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be consid...
Pro subscribers see the historical edge (in percentage points) and an interpretation grounded in Le (2026) recalibration data. Upgrade to $9/mo to unlock.